[4 trillion investment] difficult to change demand for commercial vehicles decline


Since the correlation between the commercial vehicle market and GDP growth is significant, even if considering the impact of ten measures, the negative growth trend of the commercial vehicle market is still difficult to change.

【"Financial Network" Zhuangao / Intern reporter Liang Dongmei] As a result of the 4 trillion investment plan, the A shares of the automotive sector, heavy-duty trucks and corresponding parts and components listed company stocks following the daily limit on the 10th, the 11th will remain high Increase.

Analysts believe that the new economic stimulus measures have a positive effect on the commercial vehicle market, especially the heavy truck market. "The trend of stock prices is precisely the response of the market to this policy," said Li Chunbo, a senior automotive analyst at CITIC Securities. However, this positive effect is still difficult to reverse the negative growth trend of commercial vehicles in 2009.

Due to the sluggish macro economy, the automotive market in 2008 was facing a grim situation. According to the latest statistics from the Automobile Industry Association, sales of commercial vehicles in the first ten months of 2008 were 2,303,200, an increase of 11.22% year-on-year. In the first ten months of 2007, commercial vehicle sales were 2.079 million, an increase of 25.14%. In 2007, the growth rate of the commercial vehicle market also reached 22.25%.

Affected by the decline in macroeconomic expectations, analysts generally believe that in 2009 the auto market sales growth will decline, the passenger car market may not exceed 10% growth, while the commercial vehicle market is very likely to have negative growth.

After the State Council's executive meeting proposed ten measures to expand domestic demand, the market responded positively and the commercial vehicle market ushered in a bright future. "As long as the measures to expand investment will have a positive impact on commercial vehicles," Li Chunbo told the "Financial Economics" reporter that investment in infrastructure such as railways, highways and airports will increase the demand for building materials, commercial vehicles and other products. "On the one hand, commercial vehicles are needed to build infrastructure such as roads; on the other hand, improvements in the condition of road facilities will also increase the demand for commercial vehicles."

However, Li Chunbo also believes that due to the significant correlation between the growth of the commercial vehicle market and GDP, even if the effects of ten measures are taken into account, the negative growth trend of the commercial vehicle market will remain difficult to change. He predicts that the growth rate of China's commercial vehicle market will remain unchanged in 2009. About 10% negative.

Pacific Securities Auto Analyst Shi Jianjia’s estimate is slightly optimistic. He believes that if the stimulus policies are put in place, commercial vehicles may be able to achieve zero growth or a slight increase after the overall macroeconomic situation improves. He said that if the 4 trillion investment can increase the income level of residents, it may also have a positive impact on the passenger car market.

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