The above-mentioned sources believe that there are two reasons for the sharp drop in the year-on-year growth in electricity use in June: First, the high base effect of last year (stimulated by the central package plan, the year-on-year growth rate of electricity consumption in June 2009 was officially positive); Second, as the current pillar of electricity consumption in Chinaâ€™s industrialization period, heavy industry electricity consumption has fallen into a downward trend. As for the hot weather this summer, the electricity load generated by refrigeration will not have a fundamental impact on the overall situation.
As a leading indicator of economic fundamentals, the subtle changes in electricity consumption in May may have reflected, to some extent, the changes brought about by economic restructuring. In May, heavy industry electricity consumption was 224 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 25%, and the growth rate was 3.7 percentage points lower than that in April.
In response, Xue Jing, director of the Statistical Department of the China Light & Electricity Corporation, said in an interview with this reporter that if the chaotic and transitional period during the full year economic trend in May is not appropriate to judge the basis of the overall economic trend, then 6 The monthly data can be seen as a turning point in the annual electricity consumption and economic trend. "And now, this node has already appeared."
It is worth noting that many mainstream brokerages have considered energy conservation and emission reduction as the primary policy factors affecting electricity consumption. For example, Yang Zhishan of CITIC Securities believes that achieving the target of 20% reduction in energy consumption per unit of GDP during the â€œ11th Five-Year Planâ€ period is very difficult. Therefore, various ministries and commissions have successively issued a number of measures to highlight key industries such as steel, non-ferrous metals, power, building materials, and petrochemicals. The adoption of various measures such as the cancellation of preferential tariffs, the implementation of differential tariffs, and the increased efforts to shut down high-energy-consuming enterprises has been suppressed. â€œThis effort is significantly greater than before, or has a major impact on the use of electricity by the entire society.â€ Yang Zhishan believes, â€œIt is forecasted that if the 3rd quarter GDP power consumption declines from 9.1% in the first quarter, the monthly electricity growth rate in December Will be 0.2%."
The impact of energy-saving and emission-reduction on high-energy-consuming industries will be fully reflected in the structure of electricity consumption. Through changes in the structure of electricity consumption, it will also be understood that China's industrial structure is changing, and industrial restructuring is being vigorously carried out. Xue Jing believes that from a structural point of view, some high-energy-consuming industries use electricity at a high level, and some are already at a high level. Due to inconsistent recovery time, different industries have different divisions. â€œThe impact of energy-saving and emission-reduction on electricity demand is related to the proportion of provincial power consumption. Different provinces have different strengths. There is a lot of space for energy-saving in three places: First, provinces with very poor energy-saving and emission-reduction processes; second, large-scale electricity use. Province; Third, provinces with higher energy consumption growth year-on-year."
For the power supply and demand situation this summer, analysts believe that because the peak effect of the demand side is not obvious, the pressure on the supply side is not great.
"Market coal prices will not rise. On the one hand, there are enough coal reserves in power plants, especially in East China, where coal is not tense; on the other hand, international coal prices are down. On the whole, supply and demand balance." Xue Jing said, "Of course, In some regions, there will be tension in electricity generation, mainly in central coal-producing areas such as Henan, Anhui and Shanxi.â€
Xue Jing believes that from the perspective of supply, there will not be any factors that cause large-scale power shortages. There are two types of power shortages in some areas: First, the â€œhard gapâ€ area where the original installed capacity of electricity is insufficient; second, electricity. The area where coal supply is indeed insufficient.
From the perspective of coal storage in power plants, the port and power plant inventory remain relatively high. Affected by the completion of the maintenance of the Daqin Line and the improvement of hydropower treatment, the coal storage capacity at Qinhuangdao Port increased by 1.8 million tons to a relatively high level of 6.63 million tons in the first half of June. As of July 1, Qinhuangdao Port had a stock of 5.721 million tons. Relatively high position. The number of days available for coal inventories from the national direct power supply plant is 18 days, two days higher than at the end of May.
As for some coal companies unilaterally raising the contract price and the recent request of the National Development and Reform Commission to refund the price increase, the industry believes that this is related to the widening of the price difference between the market coal price and the key contract coal price: 5500 Kcal coal prices in June are higher than the average price The contract price was about 185 yuan/ton, slightly higher than 180 yuan/ton in May, but far higher than the average level of about 40 yuan/ton in 2006-2007, which made coal companies feel "deficient" and stimulated coal. The company's "finding" mentality.
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